How Well Did I Predict the Future? Ten Political and Economic Predictions for Year 2012

12/27/2012
A year ago I made ten predictions in economics and politics. How did I do? I'm disappointed--six out of ten correct. This is good enough to win in investing but I expected better. I give myself a grade of passing. Please see the links analyzing the results below.

12/31/2011
Each of these predictions will be graded a year from now as correct or incorrect. No hedging is allowed. I will grade the list next year as 60 percent, passing; 70 percent, fair; 80 percent, good; and 90 percent excellent. You may or may not like the predicted outcomes. This is how I read the trends.

1. California will pass a ballot measure that raises taxes. CORRECT: prop 31 passed
2. White flight out of California will accelerate. CORRECT link 1 2 3
3.  Liberals will decry corporate control of politics, but neither Barack Obama nor the Republican nominee will seek public financing for the 2012 general election, in order to avoid fundraising limits. CORRECT
4. Inflation will rise over 2011 levels. No, the economy slowed.
5. Obama's health care bill will be ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. No, shockingly SCOTUS ruled that Obamacare is a tax and therefore legal..
6. Participation in food stamps and long term unemployment will decrease only slightly, by one percent or less. CORRECT Food stamp participation continues to skyrocket. link 1 2 3
7. A rating agency will further downgrade U.S. debt. CORRECT link
8. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands. CORRECT
9. The Republicans will capture the Senate.No. The Republican turnout was poor.
10. Gold will go down to $1400 per ounce. No. Gold is up again!