Franklin and Winston

Journalist Jon Meacham has written a fascinating memoir in Franklin [Roosevelt]) and Winston [Churchill]: an Intimate Portrait of  an Epic Friendship (2003, Random House, New York). The book should be read by every president that manufactures alliances and manages international conflicts. That would be every one! If our current president had read this book he may not have as quickly characterized Churchill as a reactionary colonialist and removed the Churchill bust from the White House. Churchill was a defender of the British Empire and unwilling to let colonial people have self-determination, but he was also the last European hope against Hitler. His success in lining up American help against the Nazi's, not an easy task in isolationist America, not only saved Britain. Churchill was instrumental in getting the U.S. in the war before it was too late for the free world.

Meacham analyzes the contrasting management styles of Roosevelt and Churchill. Roosevelt was practical, devious, always withholding a part of himself. He controlled his emotions completely, met women he wasn't supposed to see, and could completely compartmentalize his personal and private life from his public duties. He was a fair weather friend--publicly embarrassing and ignoring Churchill when, acting in matters of state as he saw them, he cozied up to Stalin. Roosevelt had utmost faith in his ability to charm anyone, even the Soviet dictator, and had he lived until the end of 1945, he may have been able to convince Stalin to act less aggressively in Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe. Roosevelt may have reacted less vociferously than Truman to Soviet provocations, keeping tensions between America and the Russians below the boiling point. Right before his death, Roosevelt avoided confrontation and suggested a middle course with Stalin (P.341).

In contrast to FDR, Churchill was a straight shooter, courageous, honest, devoted, warmhearted, magnanimous, and an ornate, brilliant orator. He saw black and white, good and evil, when battling Naziism, and history shows his was the correct attitude, when many in his government wanted to make a negotiated peace with Hitler. He was also prescient in predicting and exposing the nefarious intentions of the Soviet empire after the war was over. Roosevelt was starting to come around to Churchill's view of Stalin when Roosevelt suffered the cerebral hemorrhage that ended his life.

Two themes run through the book that also resonate throughout the history of 20th and 21st century presidents. Should a president campaign as though he is healthy even though he is gravely ill, and how much time does a president need in order to recuperate from the weighty pressures of the office?
Roosevelt had congestive heart failure and  hypertension, which eventually killed him. At some level he knew he was dying but felt he had to lead the war to a successful conclusion, and no one else could have done it as well. The last point is debatable, but it was obvious to all who met him that FDR looked terrible by mid 1944. He looked haggard, had lost weight, and had energy for only four hours of hard work each day, when the war demanded much more time from the leader of the western world. Roosevelt campaigned like a champion in the 1944 election for a fourth term, slogging through a nasty storm in New York City in an open car. The press put the photographs in all the newspapers. He was fine the voters thought or, wanted to think.

John F. Kennedy was also much sicker than voters knew. Despite his chronic ill health he looked like Adonis (according to journalist and newscaster Walter Cronkite) in his critical televised debate with Nixon and governed with youthful vigor. (See my review of Kennedy here.) If voters knew the truth about Kennedy's health would they have voted for him over Nixon? Woodrow Wilson was cursed with chronic ill health before his debilitating stroke near the end of his second term. Running against the athletic and larger-than-life Theodore Roosevelt in 1912, Wilson could not afford to let the American people know he was a frail academic.

Do presidents need to be flying to Camp David, playing golf, attending lavish banquets, and just plain enjoying themselves as much as they do? Presidents are always "on" and Meacham's book gives the reader more respect for the formidable pressures of the office, especially in war time. Older, sicker men need time to recharge, whether it's collecting stamps (FDR) or collecting conquests  vacationing at Hyannis Point (JFK). The American people can rightly ask if a president is vacationing in order to work better or, like a Roman emperor, taking the job for what it's worth in order to enjoy frequent, free and lavish vacations.

How Well Did I Predict the Future? Ten Political and Economic Predictions for Year 2012

12/27/2012
A year ago I made ten predictions in economics and politics. How did I do? I'm disappointed--six out of ten correct. This is good enough to win in investing but I expected better. I give myself a grade of passing. Please see the links analyzing the results below.

12/31/2011
Each of these predictions will be graded a year from now as correct or incorrect. No hedging is allowed. I will grade the list next year as 60 percent, passing; 70 percent, fair; 80 percent, good; and 90 percent excellent. You may or may not like the predicted outcomes. This is how I read the trends.

1. California will pass a ballot measure that raises taxes. CORRECT: prop 31 passed
2. White flight out of California will accelerate. CORRECT link 1 2 3
3.  Liberals will decry corporate control of politics, but neither Barack Obama nor the Republican nominee will seek public financing for the 2012 general election, in order to avoid fundraising limits. CORRECT
4. Inflation will rise over 2011 levels. No, the economy slowed.
5. Obama's health care bill will be ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. No, shockingly SCOTUS ruled that Obamacare is a tax and therefore legal..
6. Participation in food stamps and long term unemployment will decrease only slightly, by one percent or less. CORRECT Food stamp participation continues to skyrocket. link 1 2 3
7. A rating agency will further downgrade U.S. debt. CORRECT link
8. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands. CORRECT
9. The Republicans will capture the Senate.No. The Republican turnout was poor.
10. Gold will go down to $1400 per ounce. No. Gold is up again!

The Real Reason Why Obama Rejected the Canada-Texas Oil Pipeline

Alaska Oil Pipeline

President Obama "declared it was in the national interest" to nix a proposed oil pipeline from Canada to Texas refineries. See the article here. More specifically he

on Wednesday [January 18th] rejected plans for a massive oil pipeline through the heart of the United States, ruling there was not enough time for a fair review before a looming deadline forced on him by Republicans. 

Don't let the thought that there "was not enough time" enter your mind. Obama's decision involved a political calculation. Instead of pulling toward the center, Obama is trying to energize his liberal base, taking the side of the Occupiers in speeches, adopting a populists stance on taxes, and now, by halting the pipeline, giving a nice gift to the environmentalists.

Bill McKibben, an environmental activist who led opposition to the pipeline, praised Obama's decision to stand up to what he called a "naked political threat from Big Oil." 

The pipeline rejection is a red meat issue for conservatives. Republicans were enraged, which will delight the liberal base still further. Politically it made short-term sense for Obama to oppose the pipeline--it will help him hold onto majorities in blue states such as New York, Minnesota, and California. He doesn't care if he loses votes in Texas. Long-term, however, Obama made a poor decision. We have soured our relations with our biggest trading partner, Canada, who may decide to sell their oil to more accommodating Chinese rivals.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has said Canada is serious about building a pipeline to its West Coast, where oil could be shipped to China and other Asian markets. Harper on Wednesday told Obama he was profoundly disappointed that Obama turned down the pipeline, Harper's office said.

See also Canada pledges to sell oil to Asia after Obama rejects keystone pipeline.

Economically, Obama's decision makes even less sense. We have to buy oil. The United States does not have enough domestic supply even if we double our conservation efforts. Should we buy oil from Canada or from Saudi Arabia? Saudi oil money supports Wahhabi Islam, an extremist and militant form of Islam, throughout the world. I think we can say that buying Saudi instead of Canadian oil works against American interests. "Canada accounts for more than 90 percent of all proven reserves outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to data compiled in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy" (above link).

Obama's College Transcripts

Transcripts for Obama's Mother

It is clear that President Obama will not release his college transcripts for public scrutiny anytime soon. He  demanded that his rivals release their tax returns, which was much more pertinent and embarrassing, but he won't reciprocate with his grades earned 30 years ago. See link

 Why won't he release his college grades? I have three theories:
1. He is an intensely private individual
This statement does not make sense after reviewing the man's history. Obama is perhaps the most important person in the world. He has written two books about himself. He is a politician. Those actions yell out, "Look at me!" They don't communicate, "Leave me alone."Since the president is so important, all aspects of his life deserve scrutiny, especially his understanding of the world, measured by college grades. My employer has a copy of my college and graduate school grades, and the American people are Obama's employer.

2. He wants to distract the Republicans
The controversy over Obama's long birth certificate distracted Obama's political enemies from more important and relevant issues. The "birthers" ended up looking like extremists and fools. The transcript controversy has less power to demonize the Republicans. Everyone agrees Obama has a transcript, and many of us feel we have the right to see it.

3. He has something to hide
Ironically, he doesn't really. He probably has a transcript somewhat like mine--mostly A's with a few B's and maybe a C here and there. However, he thinks he has something to hide, because the transcript will make him look like every other moderately bright professional, no better and no worse, and not an elite thinker. Richard Nixon and Hillary Clinton probably had better grades. Mitt Romney certainly did.

I think it is unlikely that his grades were less than impressive, and he was accepted to Harvard Law School because of affirmative action. It is more probable that his grades were very good but not perfect, and that is why he wants to hide them.

Update (May 28, July 8, 2012): According to David Maraniss, Obama's cumulative GPA after Columbia was 3.7, an A minus average, though no source is given. His grades at his first university, Occidental, are still unknown. There is some controversy over the time he spent at Columbia, because the records are corrupt, and few professors remember him besides the one that wrote his recommendation for law school.
Update (August 6, 2012): A Columbia classmate makes the more outlandish  and completely unsubstantiated claim that Obama really does have something to hide: he was a foreign exchange student who rarely attended classes. See that article here. I personally met an Obama Columbia classmate, a father of one of my son's teammates, so I know that Obama was a student there.
Update (October 24): Donald Trump, in what he called a "bombshell" revelation, offered to donate five million dollars to Obama's favorite charity (probably not including the Obama reelection campaign) if he released his transcripts, application paperwork, and passport application. The media was not impressed, and there was no serious reply from the White House.

Obama Miscalculates on Recess Appointments

President Obama has badly miscalculated the public's reaction to his "recess" appointments of Richard Cordray as director of a new consumer protection agency and appointments to fill three labor board vacancies. The move is blatantly unconstitutional. The Senate is still in session based on Obama's own Justice Department calculations. Additionally, the Clinton White House considered the Senate in session if they met once every three days, which the Senate did. According to John Boehner (R), the Speaker of the House (link):

This is an extraordinary and entirely unprecedented power grab by President Obama that defies centuries of practice and the legal advice of his own Justice Department.  The precedent that would be set by this cavalier action would have a devastating effect on the checks and balances that are enshrined in our constitution.

The White House disagrees, saying the Senate wasn't really in session. They were not conducting business so they did not really meet.

Jay Carney, the White House press secretary, said White House lawyers were confident Mr. Obama had the authority to make the appointment. “When pro forma sessions are simply used as an attempt to stop the president from making an appointment,” he said, then the president is within his rights to move ahead. (link)

Pro forma sessions are still sessions. The courts will decide whether Obama can make recess appointments any time he likes.

The Republicans refused to grant Obama his appointments because they ideologically oppose the creation of a new consumer protection agency, and they wish to keep Obama from claiming any "victories" in an election year. Obama probably felt that these Republican positions were politically unpopular, and he could weather any political storm by calling up his new-found Theodore Roosevelt-style philosophy of increased regulation of business. Indeed, he may win back some liberals that had lost faith in him. Thus a fight with Congress made sense.

Obama said that he just lost patience with Congress stonewalling him: “I refuse to take ‘no’ for an answer. I am not going to stand by while a minority in the Senate puts party ideology ahead of the people we were elected to serve” (link above). Do not let Obama's words enter your mind. This was a cold political calculation, earning political points by using Congress as the whipping boy. How do we know? The following headline says it all:  "Dem NLRB ‘recess’ appointments rushed, don’t appear on White House nominee list"  (link here).

However, he gravely miscalculated the political fallout from a court decision that goes against him. And that is probable. If the courts rule that Obama's recess appointments are illegal and did usurp Congress' power, not only does he lose the appointments, but he comes off appearing like a frightening authoritarian to the moderate voters.

Since Congress was doing a great job of being unpopular without any help from Obama, this fight can only damage Obama in the polls. It is a miscalculation similar to Franklin Roosevelt's court packing bill of 1937. During the Great Depression the American people recoiled from the idea of an imperial White House, able to rule without checks from the other branches. They will react similarly now.

January 25, 2013 and July 17, 2013 update:
I was wrong on the public's reaction but correct on the appointments' unconstitutionality. See Obama recess appointments unconstitutional here. A third district appeals court overturned Obama's appointment here. This court looked at the history and Founders' intentions for recess appointments, and concluded that recess appointments may be made only when Congress adjourns for a long time. Next up, Supreme Court. To be continued...
June 26, 2014 update:
In a unanimous decision the Supreme Court viewed the recess appointments as unconstitutional. While the ruling was not as strong as the lower court ruling against recess appointments, the message was clear.

Reasonably "Good" Scores--Grading Obama's First Term

As a high school teacher I reserve the right to grade anyone, so I might as well grade the most powerful man in the free world. Everyone else is grading the president on economic performance, saving the environment, and foreign policy, so I will choose my own criterion.

Style: B+
Obama is tall and thin. He looks good in a suit and walks stiffly and regally--kind of like those Wall Street bankers he likes hates so much. He should  keep smoking those cigarettes.and stay trim.

Physical Education: C+
Why doesn't he stick to basketball? He's reasonably good at hoops. Instead he plays golf with like those Wall Street bankers he likes hates so much. He gets high scores for playing golf at every opportunity, 88 times so far in his term.

Vacationing: A+
Obama has spent $6 million for lavish vacationing in Hawaii alone. He knows how to relax and have a good time. His planned 17-day December to January 2012 Hawaiian vacation ended up mostly enjoyed by his wife, but he will still spend $4 million this time. Maybe he will give a few speeches on government waste, but he will get a needed break from the strains and grueling hours of his work in the White House. He better tell Congress to stop taking holidays and get back to work!

Overall: B+
As long as the American people grade the president on style, physical education, and vacationing, he gets good scores, much better than Hillary Clinton.