How Well Did I Predict the Future? Ten Political and Economic Predictions for Year 2012

12/27/2012
A year ago I made ten predictions in economics and politics. How did I do? I'm disappointed--six out of ten correct. This is good enough to win in investing but I expected better. I give myself a grade of passing. Please see the links analyzing the results below.

12/31/2011
Each of these predictions will be graded a year from now as correct or incorrect. No hedging is allowed. I will grade the list next year as 60 percent, passing; 70 percent, fair; 80 percent, good; and 90 percent excellent. You may or may not like the predicted outcomes. This is how I read the trends.

1. California will pass a ballot measure that raises taxes. CORRECT: prop 31 passed
2. White flight out of California will accelerate. CORRECT link 1 2 3
3.  Liberals will decry corporate control of politics, but neither Barack Obama nor the Republican nominee will seek public financing for the 2012 general election, in order to avoid fundraising limits. CORRECT
4. Inflation will rise over 2011 levels. No, the economy slowed.
5. Obama's health care bill will be ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. No, shockingly SCOTUS ruled that Obamacare is a tax and therefore legal..
6. Participation in food stamps and long term unemployment will decrease only slightly, by one percent or less. CORRECT Food stamp participation continues to skyrocket. link 1 2 3
7. A rating agency will further downgrade U.S. debt. CORRECT link
8. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands. CORRECT
9. The Republicans will capture the Senate.No. The Republican turnout was poor.
10. Gold will go down to $1400 per ounce. No. Gold is up again!

Pleasure in Imperial Rome

British academic Ray Laurence wrote Roman Passions, A History of Pleasure in Imperial Rome (Continuum, London, 2009) to fill a void. Historians and researchers had not yet looked deeply into Roman pleasures. This book examines in detail the enjoyment of country villas, the baths, sex, dining, music and dance, violent entertainment, and art.

Laurence debunks many longstanding myths about Roman society, for example, the myth of orgies. Sex was, for the most part, private. Roman eating could be outlandish but only for the rich. If one was rich one's diet was quite varied and sophisticated, based on contrasting flavors and a fish paste. Laurence connected the culture of consumption, which peaked in the first century CE, to economic growth and a building boom. "Cores from the Greenland ice cap reveal a peak in atmospheric pollution in antiquity occurring about 2,000 years ago, in other words, from the beginning of the first century CE" (P. 161). This level of production needed to produce these levels of atmospheric pollution was not seen again until the industrial revolution in the early 19th century (ibid.). And the Romans built and polluted with a much smaller population!

Laurence could be talking about 19th century Britain or our own times in America when he tells us that the Roman empire "was the first global economy with cheap products (such as wine) being produced in the provinces for consumption in the capital" (ibid.) The better we understand what went on in ancient Rome, the better we understand our behavior in 21st century America. Since we know what happened to Rome and why, we may have a glimpse on what our future holds as well.

The book is heavily footnoted by a well-known antiquities scholar but is not dense--it flows easily and is lots of fun to read.

Striking Parallels in History

Perhaps a future historian might write the following about the United States: "America's very overseas successes from WWII to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan began to create internal tensions as presidents amassed too much power and prestige at the expense of Congress, poor Americans lost their houses and fell into debt, the old European and Asian allies became resentful, immigration policy became illogicical, and a government system developed to rule itself was strained by having to manage nation-building."

Here is what professor Gregory S. Aldrete wrote about Imperial Rome (The Roman City: Rome, Pompeii, and Ostia, Greenwood Press, Westport, CT, 2004).
"Rome's very overseas success, however, began to create internal tensions as individual generals amassed too much power and prestige, poor Romans lost their farms and fell into debt, the old Italian allies and half-citizens became resentful, and a government system developed to rule a city was strained by having to manage an empire" (P. 8).

Aldrete's analysis applies to us as well as Imperial Rome and is somewhat chilling, yes? We can have an empire OR we can have prosperity and freedom, but we cannot have both.

Lincoln--The Movie

I rarely watch new movies, unmoved by the current excesses of sex and violence that seem to be matched to the tastes of Caligula, but finally, Hollywood has released a movie that is as engaging and intellectually stimulating as the writings of Winston Churchill or Edmund Morris. That movie is Lincoln.

I knew the movie would be good but was worried about how it would portray the war and all its gore. I was relieved to find that the fighting was de-emphasized. Even Lincoln's assassination at Ford's theater was only announced rather than acted out on screen. The war's violence did not haunt me. Instead, hours after viewing the film, I still felt inspired by Lincoln's leadership, his decision-making process, and his greatness of character.

I must give credit to Dr. Jane who invited me to go with her and her mother who saw the movie first and knew it would be perfect for me. Dr. Jane bought our tickets for the price of a glass of wine--a bargain I couldn't refuse. As a history teacher I was well aware of what the movie would be about-- a screen play based on Team of Rivals: The political Genius of Abraham Lincoln-- and how Lincoln sought after his cabinet's counsel, managed the great egos of the men involved, and, against the odds, defeated the Confederate armies and passed the Thirteenth Amendment barring slavery. For a specific description see David Wolfford's wonderful review here.

I hope my fellow movie goers will forgive me for whispering excitedly in Dr. Jane's ear, "There's William Seward." "Goodness, it's Edwin Stanton". "It's radical Republican Thaddeus Stevens". "That little guy is Confederate Vice President Stephens." "Do you recognize Robert E. Lee on horseback?" The actors looked uncannily like their namesakes pictured in the history books. The actors also portrayed their characters' personalities accurately. Seward was confident and full of himself. Stanton was serious in purpose and impetuous. Lincoln and Grant were both rough-hewn and honest.

The movie revolved around the political maneuvering in passing the Thirteenth Amendment. It was quite entertaining watching the anti-Amendment Democrats get bribed (with political patronage), bullied, cajoled, or persuaded to vote for the Amendment. Interwoven with the political fight over the Amendment were the themes of prosecution of the war and prospects for a negotiated peace--these factors determined whether the Thirteenth Amendment would pass on schedule.

This movie is about personal and political relationships--Lincoln's relationships with his wife and children, his cabinet, his party, the opposition party, slaves and freedmen, the voters, and the public. It is a successful movie because people can be fascinating if you let them be, and Lincoln does.

Caesar's Legion--The Military of Imperial Rome Lives

Vercingetorix and Caesar

The western Roman Empire has been gone for close to 1700 years, but authors continue to release excellent books about the period. Stephen Dando-Collins' Caesar's Legion: The Epic Saga of Julius Caesar's Elite Tenth Legion and the Armies of Rome can be found in paperback for a song. Dando-Collin's book (Wiley, 2002) takes us on an exciting historical journey through the end of the Roman Republic and Julius Caesar's dictatorship to the fall of Byzantine. However, the book concentrates on the forming of the 10th Legion under Caesar in Spain, Caesar's battles in Gaul, his invasion of Britain, the civil war against Pompei in which Caesar came close to losing, the next civil war in which Octavian was victorious, and the actions of the 10th in Judea, especially the destruction of Jerusalem.

Dando-Collins vividly describes army life--what it was like to be a Roman infantry soldier from 40 BCE to 100 CE: the technology of the weapons, the arms worn and carried, the uniform, the discipline endured, the recruitment procedures, and especially, what the battles looked and felt like if you were there.

Once the javelin struck anything, the weight of the shaft caused it to bend like a hockey stick where staff and head joined. With its aerodynamic qualities destroyed, it couldn't be effectively thrown back. And if it lodged in a shield, it became extremely difficult to remove, as the Helvetii [invading warriors from the area that is today Switzerland] now found.What was worse, in their case, with their shields overlapping, javelins were going through several at a time, pinning them together. With members of the [Helvetii] phalanx downed and others struggling with tangled shields, their formation was broken by the these initial volleys. Caesar gave another order. His flag dropped, and the trumpets of the first line sounded the "Charge." With a roar, the front-line [Roman] legionaries charged down the hill with drawn swords. After repeated attempts to free their shields, many Helvetii threw them away, leaving them virtually defenseless (pp. 18-19).

Another sample of Dando-Collins' eloquent and striking narrative, a description of the surrender of an enemy Gallic leader follows:

Without a word, Vercingetorix removed his sword belt and handed it to Caesar. Caesar accepted the sword, then passed it on to one of his staff. Vercingetorix removed his helmet, with its distinctive Gallic crest, and passed it over. Then his armor, richly decorated with gold and silver--attendants helped him out of it, and then this, too, he presented to Caesar, who in turn passed it to subordinates. Then Vercingetorix sat himself at Caesar's feet. There, in silence, he watched as his hungry, dejected troops came out of Alesia in a long stream with heads hung low, and piled their weapons and armor before the conquering Romans and were then led away into slavery. Finally, Vercingetorix, too, was bound with chains and taken away. (P. 60).

Through its focal point, the history of the 10th Legion, the book closely reviews the major political events of the Empire from Caesar's ascension to the rise of Vespasian. Dando-Collins takes the side of the Romans in the first Jewish revolt of 66-70 CE--not surprising since Josephus, not the Talmud was the author's major source in this section. The Jewish freedom fighters are portrayed as foolish zealots, locked in a bloody internecine conflict when not fighting the Romans. Roman general Titus is portrayed by Dando-Collins as quite reasonable, giving the Jews holding out in Jerusalem plenty of opportunities to surrender with reasonable terms. Unfortunately, the revolt in Judea led to the destruction of the Temple, a tragedy still mourned by Jews today. Many of the survivors were sold into slavery, and Dando-Collins does not mention the thousands of Jewish prisoners that were exposed to wild beasts for the entertainment of the Roman masses (Laurence, P. 135). The destruction of the Temple in Jerusalem may have been a disaster for Titus as well and not just the Jews. Roman historian Suetonius quotes a feverish Titus as confessing that he was punished with death for committing only one sin. Perhaps his disregard of Roman law, entering the Temple and Holy of Holies, and destroying the edifice was that one sin.

Dando-Collins has written other books of Roman and most recently, Hawaiian history, but Caesar's Legion is a good place to start for those unacquainted with the author and wanting to explore what life was like as a Roman soldier.

Bibliography
Laurence, Ray. Roman Passions; A History of Pleasure in Imperial Rome.  Continuum UK, London, 2009.
Suetonious. The Twelve Caesars. Tr. Robert Graves, Penguin Books, Middlesex, England, 1975.

Work Ethic and Literacy Lacking in Many Young Adults

Mike Spinrad in his classroom

The Wall Street Journal surveyed leaders from American manufacturing companies in Unemployment Paradox: Why so many jobs go unfilled (link here). Part of the problem is due to a skills shortage in science, technology, engineering, and math.

But considerable evidence suggests that many employers would be happy just to find job applicants who have the sort of “soft” skills that used to be almost taken for granted. In a 2012 survey by Manpower Group, nearly 20% of employers cited a lack of soft skills as a key reason they couldn’t hire needed employees. “Interpersonal skills and enthusiasm/motivation” were among the most commonly cited as lacking. Employers also mention poor command of English. A survey in April of human-resources professionals compared the skills gap between older workers and younger workers. More than half of the organizations surveyed reported that simple grammar and spelling were the top “basic” skills among older workers that are not readily present among younger workers....That survey also found that “professionalism” or “work ethic” is the top “applied” skill that younger workers lack. A separate survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that manufacturers were finding it harder to find punctual, reliable workers today than in 2007, despite today’s higher unemployment.

It is important for educators to emphasize the above "soft" skills as well as science and math. All high school teachers must insist on proper grammar, spelling, and syntax in both oral and written communications, presentations, and papers. I feel that teachers, in an effort to appear "hip" and engaging, do their students a disservice when they allow street talk, slang and email abbreviations in the classroom.

I am heartened that my high school administration is vigorously enforcing truancy and tardiness rules. Students should be allowed to fail once in a while (see "secret to success" article) and succeed only after expending considerable effort, developing grit and perseverance. Parents need to help their children develop these character traits. In a New York Times interview (link here), scholar Arthur Levine says:

This is a generation that was not allowed to skin their knees. They got awards and applause for everything they did, even if it was being the most improved, or the best trombone player born April 5. So it makes sense that they think very highly of their abilities, and expect to go on getting awards and applause.

Instead of letting their kids experience the real world, many parents advocate for their children even when they are away at college. It's time to give these young men and women more guidance in academic English and punctuality and less help in running the rest of their lives.