Monday, January 14, 2013

Classroom Management Issues




Classroom Management Issues—Day to Day Tenor of the Room
I keep classroom management issues, or, more precisely, the tenor or activity level of the room, constantly in awareness. Are the students excited, absorbed, interested, and enjoying learning? We all hope so. Sometimes, however, teachers work with distracted, bored, and angry students. Teachers must deliver a lesson plan while maintaining awareness about how their students seem to be feeling.

The tenor of the room guides the teacher in selecting how to deliver the lesson plan. For example, I do not ask students to read a textbook if they are sleepy or bored. A group activity or discussion could wake them up. Then, after they have come around, assign the reading. I reserve some room for improvisation in planning and delivering each lesson, because I cannot predict tomorrow’s mood. When I judge correctly, matching the type of lesson (reading, activity, group work, lecture, etc.) with the mood of the students, the lesson goes over well. When I don’t judge the classroom disposition correctly, or, more likely, become so enthralled with a lesson that I don’t pay attention to the student’s mood, I end up working harder to keep everyone engaged and focused.

What to do right now:
If students are:
  • Bored or sleepy, try a group or partnering activity.
  • Feeling exhausted and overworked, try a skit or a funny story that relates to the lesson. The lesson may also need to be broken down into smaller chunks. Or send the kids to the computer lab with a webquest created for your current unit.
  • Overly excited and scattered, try a short lecture or a read aloud. Follow that with a silent reading assignment.
  • Distracted, try to refocus students using music or art.

Group work or partnering, assignments using technology, drama or storytelling add interest and excitement to the classroom. Lectures, read alouds, music and art calm down and focus students. Reading a textbook, if set up correctly with introductions to the material, also calms students down. Do you want to energize or calm and focus the kids? In my student teaching I was often overly ambitious. These students could handle an hour-long lecture on the British Civil War I thought. These were the best students in the school, bound for the top universities in California. Their vapid stares by the end of class and poor performance on a subsequent exam proved that I was wrong. I made two mistakes—lecturing for too long and not breaking the material down into smaller pieces. Similarly, teachers often respond to the pressure of high stakes state testing and copious state standards by talking too much and jamming too much material in a lesson. The results—glassy-eyed students and ghastly test scores—confirm that teaching less achieves more. Students learn and retain more when the curriculum is delivered in a variety of ways and broken down into smaller chunks. If there is extra time in the lesson, check for understanding and re-teach as necessary. In other words, pursue depth of learning over breadth of learning. If you and your department have skillfully mapped out the curriculum beforehand, covering the requisite breadth will probably take care of itself.

Classroom Management Issues—General Overall Environment
Looking at classroom management issues more globally, independent of the day-to-day moods of the students, teachers can plan an environment based on their personality and instructing style. Teachers must find a general approach to running the high school classroom that sets limits, yet feels caring and warm to both teacher and student. See Figure I, Teacher Personality Versus Amount of Structure, below.

Figure I
Teacher Personality Versus Amount of Structure

                                    Teacher Personality
                                    Warm and Empathic
                                               


           
Amount of Structure                             A
Low                                                                                                                             High









Cold and Uncaring


Figure I borrows from the ideas of systems theory. The X (horizontal) axis is the amount of classroom structure, especially rules and procedures. The Y (vertical) axis stands for teacher personality characteristics. Point A is Spinrad’s ideal management style for the middle class high school classroom. The Y axis, warmth and empathy can be observed by how often the teacher smiles, jokes with students, asks about their family, friends and extracurricular activities, self-discloses, responds to student questions, comments on problems (in and out of the classroom), clowns and acts in a self-depreciating manner, goes off topic to attend to a “teaching moment,” creates class jokes, signs yearbooks, performs in rallies, writes and uses music and drama (and other emotion-based devices), and lastly, visibly enjoys teaching the material and the interacting with students. Most teachers cannot exhibit an elevated amount of warmth for every class—it takes too much energy and few of us feel this loving day in and day out. The students would also object. Many adolescents prefer a more business-like tone from adults. However, I recommend that teachers consider working on the warm and empathetic side of the cold to warm continuum. If the classroom is mildly inviting, students will want to stay.

What to do right now: decide in advance how much and what you will self-disclose and how much privacy you want for yourself and family.

The X axis, the amount of classroom structure—rules and procedures—can be found in how the teacher arranges the room; writes, explains, and practices rules and procedures; and punishes infractions. Teenagers need and crave some structure, but too much dampens creativity and openness of ideas, turning the classroom into a bureaucratic labyrinth instead of a place for learning. Who wants to go to school at the DMV? So here too, I prefer to teach in the middle of the continuum, leaning slightly more towards structure, as shown in the placement of point A. Teachers can increase structure by modifying the layout of desks. Turning tables or desks toward each other decreases structure. Desks organized in rows, faced toward the teacher increases structure. Reviewing rules and procedures throughout the year and enforcing them increases structure. Routine tasks such as writing lecture notes on the board before class or always showing a PowerPoint at the start of class increases structure.

I desire enough structure so that the class is perceived as safe with the teacher in control. Students must know a few general rules and procedures and abide by them. That is all. Teachers have the power to add or subtract structure as they wish, based on the maturity of the students and the class interactions. Younger students or classes with a critical mass of rebellious or unruly students require more structure. Mature students that collaborate and find creative solutions need a teacher who will loosen structure and step out of the way. Thus I find it foolish to ask most 15-year-olds to brainstorm, since they cannot handle the freedom. Similarly, teachers perform a disservice when they keep well-behaved, gifted high school seniors away from disorderly but creative group projects.

Teachers may adjust the amount of classroom structure in the same class over the course of a year. Most teachers tend to relax structure and punitive sanctions over the course of the school year, starting the year on the strict side and loosening up later if the students can handle the freedom. Teachers must find the level that works for them and the students. I have seen classrooms with the strictness of San Quentin State Prison and others that remind me of the chaos of Grand Central Station at 5PM on a Friday. Since structure must change with differing circumstances, I don’t always find the proper level. During a chaotic outdoor event I asked some of my sophomores to move to a different spot. The art teacher told me to leave them alone—they were fine where they were. He was right—for his style of teaching.

What to do right now: The teacher can and must adjust the amount of structure to fit his or her style and fit the needs of adolescents. These students respond positively to firm limits and a feeling of safety in the classroom but also require enough freedom to encourage creativity and exchange of ideas.

Who to Call When the Limits are Tested
Adolescents will test the structure and limits set up by the teacher, since this is what youth do in modern American culture. How should an educator react? Teachers have not been trained as policemen, drill sergeants, or probation officers. Lacking preparation, beginning teachers and occasionally veterans throw the book (figuratively) at the offender, sending him or her to the office for relatively minor infractions. Sending a student to the assistant principal (AP) for chewing gum gives both the student and the AP the message that you, the teacher, cannot handle minor discipline issues on your own. No, instead, the teacher must handle all infractions except the most draconian. You were there, and the AP wasn’t, and you know the context of the infraction. Does this kid always act like this, did the incident serve as a challenge to your authority, and do you want to keep the power vested in you or give it away to an AP?

An AP must be brought in if a student threatens physical harm to self or others (and you may be required to warn the intended victim as well) and in incidents involving extreme defiance and controlled substances. District policy occasionally takes the discipline procedure out of the teacher’s hands, as in cases of plagiarism or vandalism. Sometimes a few kids take over a class, especially if the teacher is a powerless substitute, and then again the AP must be called. In most other cases, in a role similar to parenting, the teacher serves as lawmaker, judge, and executor of classroom discipline and must handle the problem herself.

Proper Discipline When the Limits are Tested
A good dishwasher uses the least amount of muscles, soap and water to get the job done. Using too much is costly, an inefficient use of resources, prematurely exhausting, and may even damage the Teflon pans. Similarly, using the least amount of punishment necessary to change a student’s behavior leads to a focused, successfully-paced lesson and maintains the effective mood in the classroom. Teachers also support the adolescents’ sense of justice when they see minor infractions followed with appropriately light punishments. Figure II, below, illustrates how different interventions affect the pace of instruction in the classroom.
 



Figure II
Interventions with Problem Behavior, Least to Most Interupting

A staring at the problem behavior or nonverbally asking the offending object to be put away
B joking about the problem behavior without looking at it
C walking over to where the problem behavior is occurring while continuing to teach
D asking the disrupting student an assessment question on the task at hand
E nonverbally asking for note, gum, cell phone, Ipod, etc. to be surrendered to teacher
F saying the student’s name in a barely loud enough voice for the student to hear it
G writing on the board or telling the class that every minute of disruption will be added to the time they must stay in class after the bell rings and following through OR writing on the board or telling the class that every name written down will get in-class detention writing Latin verb conjugations or an equally odious task
H shut down—standing silently and staring at the class, waiting for them to react
*I taking a student outside to discuss his/her behavior
J writing a referral during class and calling for a yard duty escort to send the offender to the office or calling an administrator to the classroom
K taking a student outside and calling the student’s guardian on a cell phone—the “nuclear bomb” intervention—very disruptive to class time and interrupting the pace of learning


*The class should be able to see but not hear the actual lecture. The teacher must use acting skills, appearing angry for the class but not sounding angry to the misbehaving student. Notice that the teacher avoids wherever possible public humiliation, since it works poorly with adolescents who so badly need to “save face” among their peers.

Positive Reinforcement
As one with a background in behaviorism may attest, reinforcing desired behaviors achieves more than punishing undesired actions. A reinforced student is a happy student and will repeat the reinforced behavior (by definition). Some teachers give out primary reinforcers such as candy. However, explicit (external) reinforcers may take the place of the more powerful and long-lasting implicit (internal) reinforcers. Teachers should give students an acknowledging smile and kind word for a job well done, but I do not think candy or overly effusive praise works well as a reinforcer. Will the student still perform if the reinforcement is not given? I find the best reinforcers include doing interesting work and receiving immediate feedback for that work. Both of these are implicit reinforcers. Grades work well as a reinforcer, and a teacher that gives frequent assessments, whether or not they are marked in the grade book, employs a powerful tool.

These reinforcers, work that is inherently interesting and performance feedback, also duplicate the behavioral contingencies students will encounter later in life outside the classroom. Few of us get paid every day, but most teachers get to learn something new and receive daily feedback on our performance. Reinforcers work better than punishment. Punishment doesn’t tell the student what TO do, only what NOT to do. Punishment produces side effects such as anger and sullenness and so should be used sparingly. Does the problem behavior require an intervention at all? Some bad behavior will go away if ignored for a minute.

When to Use Punishment Instead of Reinforcement
Punishment MUST be used occasionally, and the teacher that tries to survive on using only reinforcement in a class of unsocialized adolescents will have a harder time than the father trying to logically convince a two-year-old in the grocery store to stop throwing things off the shelf. Secondly, teachers must punish poor behavior occasionally or it loses its ability to serve as a deterrent. We do not have our students for an unlimited amount of time and cannot afford to waste any-- that ten-minute disruption may be 20 percent of the class time. Punishment works quickly and it works well in shutting down unwanted behavior. I have noticed three types of adolescent misbehavior in the classroom and have labeled them bravado, shutdown, and clowning. The teacher can determine which of these types is at hand by monitoring his own emotions.

Bravado
The student full of bravado uses loud profanity and boasts, also loudly, of fighting or sexual prowess, or substance abuse. The student wants to impress others with his toughness and show that he’s not afraid of this teacher or any rules. Other students will watch closely how you react, and if you do nothing this obnoxious behavior will spread to other students. When you have one or more of these students in a classroom, teaching feels a bit scary, like you are a warden in a prison. I rarely see this type of misbehavior if I have the student for a semester or more. Almost always, the student is in summer school or I am a temporary teacher, a short-term sub (or student teacher). Anecdotally I have noticed more bravado in mixed sex rather than single sex classrooms.

What to do right now: Resist the urge to publicly mock or confront these students, because they then feel forced not to lose face These kids often respond to adults that have relations with them. You don’t have that relationship. If you have time, find someone that does and you will have all the leverage over this student that you need. This might be a coach, another teacher, a parent, or the assistant principal. Until you find this person, stay calm and dignified and ask the student to quiet down. If he still doesn’t behave, write a referral and with little fanfare send him out of the classroom or to the office.

Shutdown
This student refuses to cooperate—won’t read, won’t do the writing assignment, and won’t participate in any form. Her mind is elsewhere, not on your class. Often the student will attempt to cheat if worried about her grade. When you have one or more of these students in a classroom, teaching feels tiring—the student is capturing all your energy.

What to do right now: Often the student is showing learned helplessness rather than purposely acting out, so a kind word may be the best intervention at first. If the student is not suffering but has decided to fail, get numerous respected adults to remind the student to get to work. These adults could include the student’s family, coaches, or other teachers the student likes. Thirdly, make a deal with the student: “You will pass if you do…” and keep your agreement. Lastly, perhaps this student and the rest of the class could benefit from a more engaging lesson or some partnering work. You can’t beat fun.

Clowning
This student wants attention and wants to stop working. He may become a hero in the eyes of his fellows by finding a way to allow everyone else to stop working too. He gestures, jokes, ridicules, belches, makes faces, and throws things behind the teacher’s back—in a summary steals the attention that should be on the assignment or the teacher. He turns serious and significant discussions or debates into a mockery. The teacher has great difficulty focusing the class. When you have one or more of these students in a classroom, teaching feels exasperating as your best efforts are deflected and you are unable to build up a head of steam. What to do right now: Try your best to stay on track by ignoring the offending student while exhorting the class to get back to work. In more extreme cases, send out the aberrant student or give him a special job to do around the classroom or on the critical class assignment.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Technology and Teaching



The relationships between teacher, student, and parent have changed by evolving societal norms but also by the evolution in technology. Students can reach their parents throughout the day, through cell phones and email. Similarly, parents expect teachers to respond quickly to messages. Yet, pedagogy has not advanced much since the days of my grandfather. He and my children were taught high school with a teacher, a desk and a board. We have learned, along with 30 or so others, in neat desks arranged in rows—a factory formula—for 100 years! Why do high school teachers typically have five classes per day, thirty kids per class, teaching about 150 kids per day? Through using the factory model, we can educate the most pupils using the least amount of resources—that is, this model is the most efficient. We sacrifice the quality of one-to-one tutoring that produced the depth and breadth of Thomas Jefferson’s learning for the goal of giving everyone at least some education. Perhaps we can improve on the factory model by using technology. Internet lessons enable students to enjoy the following advantages.

The Excitement of Technology: Technology is the denizen of the young. Young people create it, become fluent in the use of it, and find all the possibilities for its use, both technically and sociologically. They like cutting-edge technology and will more likely attempt an assignment simply because it uses technology. As an adolescent, I used microfilm and card catalogs to do research. I had perhaps six good friends and a few dozen colleagues in the band room and chess club I would consider close acquaintances. There was no Google search and no hundreds of “friends” on Facebook. An old-fashioned research assignment that would elicit groans of protest will instead be tackled with alacrity if it involves researching links you have set up for them on the internet.

Teachers themselves also now have access to an encyclopedic amount of information online that they never had before outside of the Library of Congress, including websites with primary source documents and ready to use PowerPoints, podcasts, and videos.

The Shrinking of Time and Space: Anyone in the world with internet access (living in a nation that allows free exchange of ideas) can access an internet class, watching lectures from famous Yale professors or watch a live cam of life in Jerusalem or Beijing. Anyone in the world can find out about these through search engines. Summer school, just a make-up class or two and not an important venue for socializing or enrichment, will eventually go the way of the dodo bird. Now these few classes can be taught where the students reside—wherever their computer is located—without the expenses heating a building or supporting more than a bare-bones administrative staff. Students download lessons any time of the day or night, working on assignments at their own pace as long as the product or assessment is produced by the deadline. A fifty-minute lesson doesn’t have to be completed in fifty minutes. Fast learners can finish the lesson and the course quickly, and slow learners can take much more time than they would get in the traditional classroom.

Self-Paced Curriculum is Differential Instruction:
Why does the typical United States history course take an academic year to complete? Gifted and ambitious students could complete the textbook readings in much less time but are held back to the slower pacing of the teacher’s lectures and assessments. These more ambitious self-paced students can finish course readings in half the time it would take a student in the regular classroom curriculum. Slower students that need more time than given in a traditional classroom can review lectures and demonstrations on video, PowerPoints, and interactive tutorials as often as they like. The teacher does not force pacing based on an academic calendar. Rather student needs differentiate pacing.

Quicker feedback:
Both students and the teacher depend on the teacher’s scheduled informal and formal classroom assessments to assess whether students are learning. In cyberspace, however, lessons typically include formative multiple choice assessments. These give students immediate feedback on how well they know the material. Smarter software programs provide internal brachiation, choosing new questions depending on how the student answered the last one. Of course, multiple choice tests are not enough. Teachers can assign short answer tests or essays and quickly return these, graded, to the students.

The internet shortens the time of the feedback loop, from student to teacher back to student, since this exchange is not dependent on meeting in a classroom on a certain day of the week. For example, if a student submits a short answer response at 7PM, she may have feedback from the teacher two hours later. In a traditional classroom setting this exchange would take at least 24 hours. Students are “paid” through feedback--any feedback is reinforcing and makes them want to repeat the activity that led to the feedback. The faster they get the feedback the more reinforcing it is.

Differentiation of Curriculum:
Students may be automatically guided to different levels of instruction depending on how they answer assessment questions, saving both student and teacher time and avoiding needless frustration. All students may end the class learning roughly the same amount of material, but they may progress from different starting points.

Keeping Students Honest:
Essays may also be checked for plagiarism and copying from others through online services. It is impossible to do a complete check offline.

Communicating Better with Parents:
Parents get very frustrated with teachers that don’t return calls or emails. A good teacher’s website will link to the students’ grades, the teacher’s email address, and have downloadable current assignments. Parents have everything they need from the teacher on the website. They need to contact you less during the year. When they do contact you and you check and reply to your email daily, parents will feel that you are an empathic and responsive teacher.

Changed Relationships of a Virtual Community:
Some students do not participate in classroom discussions. They may be shy by nature or trained not to be assertive; they may be afraid to open up in front of peers; they may be overshadowed by louder, more aggressive students; or they may be disinterested in the way the material is presented. The online world, the chat room and bulletin board, cannot properly recreate the give and take of the classroom, the nuance of expression or even the timing of a joke. However, many students that do not participate in the classroom for the above reasons will participate in the online virtual classroom. Online anonymity tends to lessen classroom problems of overbearing students, embarrassment in front of peers. Teachers can combine the best of both worlds by mandating that their online class meet physically from time to time.

What to do right now: As soon as you have the time, get yourself a teacher’s website. Perhaps your school district already has the capability to set you up. If not, Google, Weebly,  and other online businesses offer free sites and still other companies offer sites custom made for teachers for low costs, less than $50/year. Search online for “websites for teachers.” Most of these require no knowledge of code, and an absolute beginner can work easily within the architecture designed for educators and have lessons online within an hour.

Friday, January 4, 2013

Food Stamps in Antiquity and Today

Augustus, Wikipedia
Food stamps are not a new idea. Taxes earmarked for religious upkeep and gleanings for the poor date back to the Biblical record, thousands of years ago. Somewhat later, near the end of the Roman Republic, politicians instituted handouts of grain for the poor of Rome. Citizens still had to get the grain milled, but they were assured of a monthly supply of food. (Gregory Aldrete in The Roman City: Rome, Pompeii, and Ostia claims the monthly handout was enough for two people.)

Imperial Rome was no different. Here, in Suetonius' words (tr. by Robert Graves) are emperor Augustus' remarks on the free grain distribution:
I had a good mind to discontinue permanently the supply of grain to the City, reliance on which had discouraged Italian agriculture; but refrained because some politician would be bound one day to revive the dole as a means of ingratiating himself with the people (The Twelve Caesars, Section 42).
Augustus realized that Italian farmers could not compete against "free" grain, brought over from Egypt, and the image of the small, self-reliant Republican farmer had become a mere myth. He also saw the danger of demagogues using free grain as a means of gaining power. Similarly, Abraham Lincoln felt that homesteaders could not compete against slave labor and came out against slavery for, at first, economic reasons. In our time, African farmers are ruined by the free grain the United States gives to their countries, and food stamp programs alter the turnout of American elections.
from Agora Financial
During the last four years the number of Americans receiving food stamps has skyrocketed, while the number of Americans supporting the program has diminished. If this was a temporary situation and there was a quick jobs recovery, employment would rise and food stamp participation would fall. The blue and red lines on the graph on the left would intersect, and we would congratulate ourselves for supporting the poor while on the road to economic growth and prosperity. But there is little evidence that employment is roaring back. We have not had a good jobs report (more than 200,000 jobs created/month) in a long time. Unlike Rome, we are not (I hope) going to take over another country and steal its grain. We will be forced to cut other programs and/or raise taxes, which may slow our economy further.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

What Presidents Teach Us about Luxury

Photo from PBS
Eleanor Roosevelt's austerity in the White House kitchen (abstract here) seems quaint today. Franklin D. Roosevelt put up with meals costing ten cents per serving (adjusted by inflation to $1.70 today). Despite the strains of the Great Depression and WWII on a polio-ravaged body, FDR traveled abroad for conferences with the allies, campaigned vigorously, battled the Great Depression (unsuccessfully but with great energy) and the Axis powers (successfully), and vacationed 958 days in close to 12 years as president, about 80 days per year. During much of those 958 days he was still engaged in executive duties in his vacation house in Warm Springs, Georgia. Most considered his vacations neither frivolous nor overly expensive.

Obama vacations are much more expensive, not because of his rented house (which he pays for), but because his large Praetorian Guard must be jetted over to Hawaii and put up in hotels.The latest $7 million dollar vacation can be inspected here. Let us put this most recent vacation in perspective. This one trip will cost more than the average American would make in 175 years of work. When Obama's wife or children vacation away from the president, they too must be guarded by a large entourage, and taxpayers foot the bill.

I am aware that George W. Bush vacationed a greater amount of time than any president including Obama. However, most of that was at the Crawford Ranch, 1,300 miles away, "working at home," which W preferred. That may be qualitatively different than jetting 4,800 miles to Hawaii to play golf and enjoy a tropical paradise, maybe not, since W's trips were also expensive. Most will agree that the attitude towards luxury and the use of taxpayer funds is quite different than what FDR experienced at the hands of his wife. Neither W nor Obama seem embarrassed by these trips, 54 Christmas trees in the White House, or, most fittingly, lavish White House state dinners (such as the million dollar gala for Mexico's president). Too bad FDR wasn't invited. He would have enjoyed a little caviar and champagne.

Eleanor Roosevelt was implicitly telling the public that the Roosevelts may be rich but they can live frugally and responsibly, and she vicariously shares the hardship of most Americans during the Great Depression. The current White House attitude is the opposite in every respect. Corporate boards often tie CEOs' bonus pay to corporate performance. Maybe we should do the same for presidential vacations, limiting taxpayer funds as long as America's economic performance is sub par.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

How Well Did I Predict the Future? Ten Political and Economic Predictions for Year 2012

12/27/2012
A year ago I made ten predictions in economics and politics. How did I do? I'm disappointed--six out of ten correct. This is good enough to win in investing but I expected better. I give myself a grade of passing. Please see the links analyzing the results below.

12/31/2011
Each of these predictions will be graded a year from now as correct or incorrect. No hedging is allowed. I will grade the list next year as 60 percent, passing; 70 percent, fair; 80 percent, good; and 90 percent excellent. You may or may not like the predicted outcomes. This is how I read the trends.

  1. California will pass a ballot measure that raises taxes. CORRECT: prop 31 passed
  2. White flight out of California will accelerate. CORRECT link 1 2 3
  3.  Liberals will decry corporate control of politics, but neither Barack Obama nor the Republican nominee will seek public financing for the 2012 general election, in order to avoid fundraising limits. CORRECT
  4. Inflation will rise over 2011 levels. No, the economy slowed.
  5. Obama's health care bill will be ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. No, shockingly SCOTUS ruled that Obamacare is a tax and therefore legal..
  6. Participation in food stamps and long term unemployment will decrease only slightly, by one percent or less. CORRECT Food stamp participation continues to skyrocket. link 1 2 3
  7. A rating agency will further downgrade U.S. debt. CORRECT link
  8. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands. CORRECT
  9. The Republicans will capture the Senate.No. The Republican turnout was poor.
  10. Gold will go down to $1400 per ounce. No. Gold is up again!

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Pleasure in Imperial Rome



British academic Ray Laurence wrote Roman Passions, A History of Pleasure in Imperial Rome (Continuum, London, 2009) to fill a void. Historians and researchers had not yet looked deeply into Roman pleasures. This book examines in detail the enjoyment of country villas, the baths, sex, dining, music and dance, violent entertainment, and art.

Laurence debunks many longstanding myths about Roman society, for example, the myth of orgies. Sex was, for the most part, private. Roman eating could be outlandish but only for the rich. If one was rich one's diet was quite varied and sophisticated, based on contrasting flavors and a fish paste. Laurence connected the culture of consumption, which peaked in the first century CE, to economic growth and a building boom. "Cores from the Greenland ice cap reveal a peak in atmospheric pollution in antiquity occurring about 2,000 years ago, in other words, from the beginning of the first century CE" (P. 161). This level of production needed to produce these levels of atmospheric pollution was not seen again until the industrial revolution in the early 19th century (ibid.). And the Romans built and polluted with a much smaller population!

Laurence could be talking about 19th century Britain or our own times in America when he tells us that the Roman empire "was the first global economy with cheap products (such as wine) being produced in the provinces for consumption in the capital" (ibid.) The better we understand what went on in ancient Rome, the better we understand our behavior in 21st century America. Since we know what happened to Rome and why, we may have a glimpse on what our future holds as well.

The book is heavily footnoted by a well-known antiquities scholar but is not dense--it flows easily and is lots of fun to read.

Striking Parallels in History

Perhaps a future historian might write the following about the United States: "America's very overseas successes from WWII to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan began to create internal tensions as presidents amassed too much power and prestige at the expense of Congress, poor Americans lost their houses and fell into debt, the old European and Asian allies became resentful, immigration policy became illogicical, and a government system developed to rule itself was strained by having to manage nation-building."

Here is what professor Gregory S. Aldrete wrote about Imperial Rome (The Roman City: Rome, Pompeii, and Ostia, Greenwood Press, Westport, CT, 2004).
"Rome's very overseas success, however, began to create internal tensions as individual generals amassed too much power and prestige, poor Romans lost their farms and fell into debt, the old Italian allies and half-citizens became resentful, and a government system developed to rule a city was strained by having to manage an empire" (P. 8).

Aldrete's analysis applies to us as well as Imperial Rome and is somewhat chilling, yes? We can have an empire OR we can have prosperity and freedom, but we cannot have both.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Lincoln--The Movie

I rarely watch new movies, unmoved by the current excesses of sex and violence that seem to be matched to the tastes of Caligula, but finally, Hollywood has released a movie that is as engaging and intellectually stimulating as the writings of Winston Churchill or Edmund Morris. That movie is Lincoln.

I knew the movie would be good but was worried about how it would portray the war and all its gore. I was relieved to find that the fighting was de-emphasized. Even Lincoln's assassination at Ford's theater was only announced rather than acted out on screen. The war's violence did not haunt me. Instead, hours after viewing the film, I still felt inspired by Lincoln's leadership, his decision-making process, and his greatness of character.

I must give credit to Dr. Jane who invited me to go with her and her mother who saw the movie first and knew it would be perfect for me. Dr. Jane bought our tickets for the price of a glass of wine--a bargain I couldn't refuse. As a history teacher I was well aware of what the movie would be about-- a screen play based on Team of Rivals: The political Genius of Abraham Lincoln-- and how Lincoln sought after his cabinet's counsel, managed the great egos of the men involved, and, against the odds, defeated the Confederate armies and passed the Thirteenth Amendment barring slavery. For a specific description see David Wolfford's wonderful review here.

I hope my fellow movie goers will forgive me for whispering excitedly in Dr. Jane's ear, "There's William Seward." "Goodness, it's Edwin Stanton". "It's radical Republican Thaddeus Stevens". "That little guy is Confederate Vice President Stephens." "Do you recognize Robert E. Lee on horseback?" The actors looked uncannily like their namesakes pictured in the history books. The actors also portrayed their characters' personalities accurately. Seward was confident and full of himself. Stanton was serious in purpose and impetuous. Lincoln and Grant were both rough-hewn and honest.

The movie revolved around the political maneuvering in passing the Thirteenth Amendment. It was quite entertaining watching the anti-Amendment Democrats get bribed (with political patronage), bullied, cajoled, or persuaded to vote for the Amendment. Interwoven with the political fight over the Amendment were the themes of prosecution of the war and prospects for a negotiated peace--these factors determined whether the Thirteenth Amendment would pass on schedule.

This movie is about personal and political relationships--Lincoln's relationships with his wife and children, his cabinet, his party, the opposition party, slaves and freedmen, the voters, and the public. It is a successful movie because people can be fascinating if you let them be, and Lincoln does.

Friday, December 14, 2012

Caesar's Legion--The Military of Imperial Rome Lives

Vercingetorix and Caesar
The western Roman Empire has been gone for close to 1700 years, but authors continue to release excellent books about the period. Stephen Dando-Collins' Caesar's Legion: The Epic Saga of Julius Caesar's Elite Tenth Legion and the Armies of Rome can be found in paperback for a song. Dando-Collin's book (Wiley, 2002) takes us on an exciting historical journey through the end of the Roman Republic and Julius Caesar's dictatorship to the fall of Byzantine. However, the book concentrates on the forming of the 10th Legion under Caesar in Spain, Caesar's battles in Gaul, his invasion of Britain, the civil war against Pompei in which Caesar came close to losing, the next civil war in which Octavian was victorious, and the actions of the 10th in Judea, especially the destruction of Jerusalem.

Dando-Collins vividly describes army life--what it was like to be a Roman infantry soldier from 40 BCE to 100 CE: the technology of the weapons, the arms worn and carried, the uniform, the discipline endured, the recruitment procedures, and especially, what the battles looked and felt like if you were there.
Once the javelin struck anything, the weight of the shaft caused it to bend like a hockey stick where staff and head joined. With its aerodynamic qualities destroyed, it couldn't be effectively thrown back. And if it lodged in a shield, it became extremely difficult to remove, as the Helvetii [invading warriors from the area that is today Switzerland] now found.What was worse, in their case, with their shields overlapping, javelins were going through several at a time, pinning them together. With members of the [Helvetii] phalanx downed and others struggling with tangled shields, their formation was broken by the these initial volleys. Caesar gave another order. His flag dropped, and the trumpets of the first line sounded the "Charge." With a roar, the front-line [Roman] legionaries charged down the hill with drawn swords. After repeated attempts to free their shields, many Helvetii threw them away, leaving them virtually defenseless (pp. 18-19).
Another sample of Dando-Collins' eloquent and striking narrative, a description of the surrender of an enemy Gallic leader follows:
Without a word, Vercingetorix removed his sword belt and handed it to Caesar. Caesar accepted the sword, then passed it on to one of his staff. Vercingetorix removed his helmet, with its distinctive Gallic crest, and passed it over. Then his armor, richly decorated with gold and silver--attendants helped him out of it, and then this, too, he presented to Caesar, who in turn passed it to subordinates. Then Vercingetorix sat himself at Caesar's feet. There, in silence, he watched as his hungry, dejected troops came out of Alesia in a long stream with heads hung low, and piled their weapons and armor before the conquering Romans and were then led away into slavery. Finally, Vercingetorix, too, was bound with chains and taken away. (P. 60).
Through its focal point, the history of the 10th Legion, the book closely reviews the major political events of the Empire from Caesar's ascension to the rise of Vespasian. Dando-Collins takes the side of the Romans in the first Jewish revolt of 66-70 CE--not surprising since Josephus, not the Talmud was the author's major source in this section. The Jewish freedom fighters are portrayed as foolish zealots, locked in a bloody internecine conflict when not fighting the Romans. Roman general Titus is portrayed by Dando-Collins as quite reasonable, giving the Jews holding out in Jerusalem plenty of opportunities to surrender with reasonable terms. Unfortunately, the revolt in Judea led to the destruction of the Temple, a tragedy still mourned by Jews today. Many of the survivors were sold into slavery, and Dando-Collins does not mention the thousands of Jewish prisoners that were exposed to wild beasts for the entertainment of the Roman masses (Laurence, P. 135). The destruction of the Temple in Jerusalem may have been a disaster for Titus as well and not just the Jews. Roman historian Suetonius quotes a feverish Titus as confessing that he was punished with death for committing only one sin. Perhaps his disregard of Roman law, entering the Temple and Holy of Holies, and destroying the edifice was that one sin.

Dando-Collins has written other books of Roman and most recently, Hawaiian history, but Caesar's Legion is a good place to start for those unacquainted with the author and wanting to explore what life was like as a Roman soldier.

Bibliography
Laurence, Ray. Roman Passions; A History of Pleasure in Imperial Rome.  Continuum UK, London, 2009.
Suetonious. The Twelve Caesars. Tr. Robert Graves, Penguin Books, Middlesex, England, 1975.




Sunday, December 2, 2012

Work Ethic and Literacy Lacking in Many Young Adults

Mike Spinrad in his classroom
The Wall Street Journal surveyed leaders from American manufacturing companies in Unemployment Paradox: Why so many jobs go unfilled (link here). Part of the problem is due to a skills shortage in science, technology, engineering, and math.
But considerable evidence suggests that many employers would be happy just to find job applicants who have the sort of “soft” skills that used to be almost taken for granted. In a 2012 survey by Manpower Group, nearly 20% of employers cited a lack of soft skills as a key reason they couldn’t hire needed employees. “Interpersonal skills and enthusiasm/motivation” were among the most commonly cited as lacking. Employers also mention poor command of English. A survey in April of human-resources professionals compared the skills gap between older workers and younger workers. More than half of the organizations surveyed reported that simple grammar and spelling were the top “basic” skills among older workers that are not readily present among younger workers....That survey also found that “professionalism” or “work ethic” is the top “applied” skill that younger workers lack. A separate survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that manufacturers were finding it harder to find punctual, reliable workers today than in 2007, despite today’s higher unemployment.
It is important for educators to emphasize the above "soft" skills as well as science and math. All high school teachers must insist on proper grammar, spelling, and syntax in both oral and written communications, presentations, and papers. I feel that teachers, in an effort to appear "hip" and engaging, do their students a disservice when they allow street talk, slang and email abbreviations in the classroom.

I am heartened that my high school administration is vigorously enforcing truancy and tardiness rules. Students should be allowed to fail once in a while (see "secret to success" article) and succeed only after expending considerable effort, developing grit and perseverance. Parents need to help their children develop these character traits. In a New York Times interview (link here), scholar Arthur Levine says:
This is a generation that was not allowed to skin their knees. They got awards and applause for everything they did, even if it was being the most improved, or the best trombone player born April 5. So it makes sense that they think very highly of their abilities, and expect to go on getting awards and applause.
Instead of letting their kids experience the real world, many parents advocate for their children even when they are away at college. It's time to give these young men and women more guidance in academic English and punctuality and less help in running the rest of their lives.

Sunday, November 25, 2012

Introduce Marxism with a Short Skit In World History or Economics Class



I have used this short skit successfully in World History (in the study of the industrial revolution), and American Government and Economics. Feel free to copy and use it, and please let me know how the lesson went. The teacher may wish to prepare a short presentation comparing laissez-faire capitalism to Marxism and examine the vocabulary words (below) before doing the skit. The teacher may do the skit alone or have students perform it. Enjoy!
- Mike


Mike Spinrad, San Marin High School, Novato, California
Karl Marx Encounters Capitalist

Scene:  London 1850

Marx:  My backside hurts from boils, probably because I’ve already sat and read in the public library for six hours today. Who’s coming to greet me?

William Pound: It’s me, William Pound.

Marx: Ah yes. Pound, I called you to discuss your ridiculous beliefs about factory owners. Why don’t you understand that every time a factory produces something, workers are exploited?

William Pound: The workers trade their labor for pay. It’s a free exchange where both owner and worker agree, without coercion, to engage in a contract. What could be wrong with that?

Marx: The workers are paid poorly and working conditions are bad. The workers are nothing more than slaves, wage slaves.

William Pound: Working conditions have been improving for years, thanks to recent laws passed by Parliament and the power of unions. Additionally, not all factory owners treat their employees poorly.  Don’t you think a worker has mastery over his own fate and can move, working wherever he pleases?

Marx: I am a determinist. I do not believe in free will. It’s an economic system, not individuals that determine history. As it has been said, the system makes people act the way they do.

William Pound: What nonsense are you saying? An economic system produced the ambition of Napoleon and genius of the Duke of Wellington? People, not systems make choices in their lives and create history.

Marx: You sound like my Jewish grandfather. He thought that people have choices too. I’m glad I was baptized as a young child and that you’re not Jewish.

William Pound: Karl, you’re a vicious anti-Semite as well as the originator of catchy but superficial ideas. Naturally, no one wants to be against workers earning a good living. Few common people care about liberty, however, until it’s gone. Just how do you propose the change to socialism will occur?

Marx: I believe that the capitalist system will destroy itself by producing enough disgruntled workers. These workers will take over and replace capitalism with a socialist paradise. We won’t need liberty in this socialist paradise.
________________________________________________________



Name ______________________


Define the following words and answer the questions:

Liberty



Determinist



Exploited



Anti-Semite



Coercion



_____________________________________________________________
What is more important to you, liberty or equality of outcome? Why?





Do you believe in determinism or free will?  Why?

Friday, November 23, 2012

The Left's View of Thanksgiving--A Rational Response

Robert Jensen's No Thanks for Thanksgiving (link here) twists and falsifies history. Let's look at what really happened.

Jensen: "But in the United States, this reluctance to acknowledge our original sin -- the genocide of indigenous people..."

Most Native American deaths in the Americas were due to disease. Smallpox killed biologically unprepared indigenous people much more efficiently than Spanish conquistadors, destroying 90 percent of those infected, and most of its victims never saw a white man.

Englishmen had less use for natives than the Spanish. The English were not interested in gaining gold from the Indians. Instead the English and Native Americans competed for land. Sometimes, as in the cases of the Pilgrims and the Quakers in Pennsylvania, both sides cooperated, but most of the time, the two sides descended into armed conflict.
Jensen: But it's also true that by 1637 Massachusetts Gov. John Winthrop was proclaiming a thanksgiving for the successful massacre of hundreds of Pequot Indian men, women and children, part of the long and bloody process of opening up additional land to the English invaders.
The Powhatan Indians started the war against the English in Massachusetts, massacring women and children. The English responded with "Irish tactics," using the same scorched earth policy that successfully broke the Irish resistance. What's more, infectious disease took a great toll on the tribes, and total war and disease was responsible for pretty much wiping them out. Disgraceful, terrible, but not genocide.
Jensen: The pattern would repeat itself across the continent until between 95 and 99 percent of American Indians had been exterminated and the rest were left to assimilate into white society or die off on reservations, out of the view of polite society.
Jensen fails to account for disease in his statistics, and the Indians of the Great Plains killed a fair share of white civilians as well, fighting bravely against the U.S. army with stone-age technology, and then later, with rifles (bye, bye, General Custer).

The Native Americans were doomed by European diseases and the sheer numbers of land-hungry English colonists and, later, American citizens. The cooperation between natives and whites during the Pilgrims' first winter shows how things could have been and should be celebrated in the holiday of Thanksgiving.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Times Puff Piece on New Chinese Dictator

The NYT (Never Yell Truth; Nikita, Yuriy, Trotsky; New Yankee Tragedy--you pick ), honoring their philosophy, "All the Leftist Propaganda News Fit to Print," found time in between working for the Obama reelection campaign to publish an obsequious piece analyzing the background of the new Chinese dictator. In the Times November 3, 2012 article, Close Army Ties of China’s New Leader Could Test the U.S (link here), reporter Jane Perlez catches the readers interest with new Communist Party leader's Xi Jinping's Mexico City criticism of American policy:
“There are a few foreigners, with full bellies, who have nothing better to do than try to point fingers at our country,” Mr. Xi said, according to a tape broadcast on Hong Kong television.  “China does not export revolution, hunger, poverty nor does China cause you any headaches. Just what else do you want?”
Oh, I can think of a few things: Quit supporting the murderous and terrorist regimes in North Korea and Iran. Stop building up your military and threatening U.S. allies. Let your currency float instead of violating trade regulations. But Perlez's article never challenges Xi's ludicrous statements. Instead, the article suggests that America is in decline and China is ascendant.
The Chinese military’s new buoyancy comes as America’s allies across Asia — Japan, South Korea, Australia and other friends, particularly Singapore and India — worry whether the United States has the money, and the will, to enhance its military presence in Asia, as President Obama has promised.  
The above may be true, but the Times' does not interview anyone critical of the Chinese regime. The last time I checked the New York Times was not affiliated with China's People's Daily. I'm having difficulty figuring out the difference between them.

China does not show the American public it's aggressive policy, the speech made in Mexico City and the leadership's real feelings. Instead, we are told to play with panda bears and enjoy inexpensive Chinese goods. The People's Daily editorializes, China’s Communist Paper Calls for Closer U.S. Ties Under Xi (link here). "China and the U.S. should deepen cooperation and become more interdependent, the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper said in a commentary today, signaling that new leader Xi Jinping may seek closer ties."

On whose terms?

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

25 Years Later: What Do Our 17-Year-Olds Know?

Diane Ravitch/Picture from Stanford.edu
Diane Ravitch and Chester Finn assessed high school seniors' grasp of American history and literature in their classic book, What Do Our 17-Year-Olds Know, released in 1987. The conclusions of What Do Our 17-Year-Olds Know may be more relevant today than they were 25 years ago. Ravitch and Finn write about the amount of information available to the average teenager. Today's students are even more bombarded with information--from computers and cell phones--nonexistent in 1987.
But can they make sense of what they see and hear? Do they have the perspective to separate what is important from what is trivial? What is durable from what is ephemeral? Can they interpret the significance of the day's news? Are they able to discern patterns of trends and events? Are they capable of introspection? Can they relate their experiences to universal themes that have been explored by great writers through the ages? These are only a few of the potential benefits of the study of history and literature (P.202).
Ravitch and Finn found that students scored poorly in their understanding of history and literature. Things are worse now. Students, especially boys, read less today than they did in the 1980s, and their corresponding amount of knowledge has shrunk further. (See my blog, How Boys Can Do Better in School.)

Thus the answer to all of Ravitch and Finn's questions above would be an emphatic "no!" Only the elite, perhaps the top 20 percent of graduating California high school seniors can separate the wheat from the chafe and put their experience in a larger context and make sense of the world around them. I find these kids in our Advanced Placement (college-level) program.

What to Do
Since students today come to class with less background knowledge and a smaller vocabulary than their cohort of 25 years ago, teachers must assume that they are less capable. Below are words used for one of my lessons on industrialization. These words and phrases are difficult for my average high school sophomores. They have trouble understanding what the words mean. When these words are mastered we can better place the terms into historical context.
  • wages docked
  • consent
  • figuring out the number of hours on the job--6AM to 7PM
  • the sick fund
  • dismissal
  • deference
  • untrue allegations
  • wage advances
Once we have mastered literacy concerns the history itself may be understood. So literacy becomes a part of most lessons. I ask the students to define vocabulary. "What does this mean?" and I put vocabulary words on tests. Secondly, most students need assistance understanding most high school World and U.S. History textbooks. They cannot decipher textbooks on their own, so teacher summaries and read-alouds, pair-share, and teacher-monitored jigsaws of reading materials are essential.

Third, Ravitch and Finn write about the need to include chronology in history lessons, giving the curriculum more meaning by putting it into context with other historical facts they may (we hope) know. This is even more important today. I enjoy creating parallel timelines that show world and American history in sequence. Most male students are interested in transportation, Stephenson's Rocket to the Model T, weaponry, the musket to the M-16, and technology, the typewriter to the PC, so add those categories on your timelines.

Adults Acting Like Adults

Ravitch and Finn are squarely against "romantic" practices such as letting adolescents learn what they want to learn--the view that naturalness is good and schools should provide freedom where children can develop naturally. (See my blog Educational Ideologies and Applications here.) Instead, Ravitch and Finn concede that children do not
...naturally gravitate to academic subjects or spontaneously immerse themselves in the lore of their civilization. Children are often not the best judges of what they need to do and know. In general, we believe that children learn pretty much what the important adults in their lives make a point in seeing that they learn: in school, at home, and through a myriad of other means (P. 203).
A lot is at stake. "Failure to make this cultural knowledge part of every child's inheritance serves to reinforce invidious social class distinctions (P. 235)." In other words, those who favor social justice and equality should demand that all children learn America's historical canon.


Monday, November 5, 2012

Age and Happiness

Sonja Lyubomirsky, Ph.D.

Psychology professor Sonya Lyubmirsky, in an interview, states that older people generally tend to be happier. She says:
The relationship between age and happiness is complex. Studies have found that older people generally tend to be happier than younger ones. A 22-year study of healthy veterans revealed that well-being increased over the course of these men’s lives, peaked at age 65, and did not start significantly declining until age 75. People tend to move toward more positive trait profiles as they age, becoming lower in neuroticism [negative emotions such as hate, anger, and jealousy--MS], for example, as they approach middle age. This may be because older people are better able to resist social pressures and pursue goals for more self-endorsed reasons, the result of a normative maturational process. Older people have also been found to be emotionally wiser.
The Economist looks at the data differently, showing that well-being (a slightly different descriptor and dependent variable than happiness) follows a U-shape pattern.
The U-Bend

 The Economist notes the U-bend's
effect on happiness is significant—about half as much, from the nadir of middle age to the elderly peak, as that of unemployment. It appears all over the world. David Blanchflower, professor of economics at Dartmouth College, and Mr Oswald looked at the figures for 72 countries. The nadir varies among countries—Ukrainians, at the top of the range, are at their most miserable at 62, and Swiss, at the bottom, at 35—but in the great majority of countries people are at their unhappiest in their 40s and early 50s. The global average is 46. The U-bend shows up in studies not just of global well-being but also of hedonic or emotional well-being. One paper, published this year by Arthur Stone, Joseph Schwartz and Joan Broderick of Stony Brook University, and Angus Deaton of Princeton, breaks well-being down into positive and negative feelings and looks at how the experience of those emotions varies through life. Enjoyment and happiness dip in middle age, then pick up; stress rises during the early 20s, then falls sharply; worry peaks in middle age, and falls sharply thereafter; anger declines throughout life; sadness rises slightly in middle age, and falls thereafter. Turn the question upside down, and the pattern still appears. When the British Labour Force Survey asks people whether they are depressed, the U-bend becomes an arc, peaking at 46.
Speculations
So why do we see the U-bend? The Economist rules out external factors such as caring for teenage children and wealth effects and argues that internal factors must be at work. Aware of their own approaching death and more accepting of their failings, older people are more emotionally stable and less prone to quarreling, but I find this explanation wanting. It should lead to an upward curve from youth and not the U-bend.

Perhaps a psychological mechanism is at work. Those in the prime of life, childbearing years, are blessed with the most energy, ambition, and libido, all of which wane by the late 40s and early 50s. At this age one is at the peak of his career, the last hurrah, but can see his powers starting to wane. It's too early to accept one's lot without resentment and sadness about what might have been and since it's all downhill from here, one worries about the future. Ironically, ten years later one sees less to fret about, and well-being rises.

Alternatively, a biological and Darwinian mechanism may increase feel-good neurotransmitters such as dopamine by the early 50s and beyond, perhaps to ensure better grand-parenting and tribal leadership.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Obama and the Jewish Vote

An AJC poll shows 65 percent of Jews nationwide support Obama, 24 percent support Romney, and 10 percent are undecided. (I assume a rounding error accounts for the missing one percent.)
The poll, conducted Sept. 6-17 among 1,040 Jewish voters nationwide, found Obama doing better than Romney among Jews of all religious backgrounds with the exception of the Orthodox, who favored the Republican nominee. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, the poll's overall finding regarding the state of the Jewish vote is similar to other recent polling from Gallup and elsewhere. Another recent poll by the AJC of registered Jewish voters in Florida found 69 percent supporting Obama and 25 percent for Romney.
 These statistics matter in Florida, a must-win highly Jewish state. I doubt whether Obama polls at 69 percent in Florida now, after his highly-watched trouncing October 3rd. Still, he will win the majority of the Jewish vote. What I find most fascinating is how his Jewish support has changed since Obama's first term. Here is the Jewish voting record for 88 years of U.S. presidential elections ( from the Jewish Virtual Library, link here):
Election Year
Candidates
Jewish Vote*
Total Vote*

Election Year
Candidates
Jewish Vote*
Total Vote*
2008
McCain (R)
22
46
1960
Nixon (R)
18
50
Obama (D)
78
52
Kennedy (D)
82
50
2004
Bush (R)
24
51
1956
Eisenhower (R)
40
57
Kerry (D)
76
48
Stevenson (D)
60
42
2000
Bush (R)
19
48
1952
Eisenhower (R)
36
55
Gore (D)
79
48
Stevenson (D)
64
44
1996
Dole (R)
16
41
1948
Dewey (R)
10
45
Clinton (D)
78
49
Truman (D)
75
50
Perot (I)
3
8
Wallace (Progressive)
15
2
1992
Bush (R)
11
37
1944
Dewey (R)
10
46
Clinton (D)
80
43
Roosevelt (D)
90
53
1988
Bush (R)
35
53
1940
Wilkie (R)
10
45
Dukakis (D)
64
46
Roosevelt (D)
90
55
1984
Reagan (R)
31
59
1936
Landon (R)
15
37
Mondale (D)
67
41
Roosevelt (D)
85
61
1980
Reagan (R)
39
51
1932
Hoover (R)
18
40
Carter (D)
45
41
Roosevelt (D)
82
57
1976
Ford (R)
27
48
1928
Hoover (R)
28
58
Carter (D)
71
50
Smith (D)
72
41
1972
Nixon (R)
35
61
1924
Coolidge (R)
27
54
McGovern (D)
65
38
Davis (D)
51
29
1968
Nixon (R)
17
43
1920
Harding (R)
43
60
Humphrey (D)
81
43
Cox (D)
19
34
Wallace (I)
2
14
Debs (Socialist)
38
3
1964
Goldwater (R)
10
38




Johnson (D)
90
61

Jews have voted heavily Democratic for generations. As much as 80 to 90 percent of the Jewish vote goes to popular Democratic candidates. However, Obama is probably not going to win the 78 percent of the Jewish vote that went for him in the 2008 election. Most likely he will win about 72 percent of the Jewish vote, a significant decline. (I am taking the AJC poll numbers and giving Obama seven percent out of the ten percent currently undecided.) One must go back 34 years, to the days of the Reagan juggernaut to find Jewish voters supporting the Democratic candidate so weakly. Why?

An increasingly high number of Jews are voting against Obama for the same reason that roughly half the electorate is voting against Obama--the bad economy. Most Jews like his unfailingly liberal views on health care, energy and social policies. The high unemployment rate and low level of GDP growth trumps those issues. The magic of the 2008 election is gone, and negative campaigning is back.

Secondly, Obama's support of Israel seems more tenuous than it really is, mostly because of his poor relations with Israeli premier, Benjamin Netanyahu. (See my previous comments on that here.)

At this point Obama can't do much to heal the economy, but if he loses Florida in the election, he may wish that he met in late September with Netanyahu instead of snubbing him.

Update October 8, 2012: Mitt Romney, in a foreign policy speech, keyed in on the Obama-Netanyahu split. He said, "The relationship between the president of the United States and the prime minister of Israel, for example -- our closest ally in the region -- has suffered great strains. The president explicitly stated that his goal was to put "daylight" between the United States and Israel, and he succeeded. This is a dangerous situation that has set back the hope of peace in the Middle East and emboldened our mutual adversaries, especially Iran."

Moderate and conservative Jews may agree.


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